Today we need to jump right into the economic calendar as we see today’s ECB interest rate decision and US inflation figures today and tomorrow.
We have mixed strength and weakness on EUR pairs so let’s take a closer look.
I’m Brad Alexander, and in today’s GCI Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI Crude Oil, EURJPY, EURNZD, and EURUSD.
Just a reminder that these videos are intended as observational and educational, and are not to be considered as trading advice.
If you are new to interest rates, central banks and the economic calendar, here is a quick overview.
The existing interest rate, set by the ECB, is 2.4%.
Economists feel that they will change it today to 2.65%.
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Knowing this, you would think that the EUR would be rising and it is against some currencies, but other currencies like JPY and USD are fighting back.
So, if the rate announced is different from the 2.65% forecast, we may see some serious moves.
Even if the final announcement is the same figure, we usually get volatility, and we can trade this with our News Catalyst Fade strategy.
For example, we see EURNZD is in a 9-day uptrend on the 4-hour chart.
If price falls after the announcement, or, more importantly, during the press conference, we may have an opportunity to open a position WITH the trend.
There is a link in the description to more details on this.
We see EURUSD in an ascending triangle, so price action could go either way.
EURCAD is in a downtrend, partially due to the increasing price of crude, so we may have an opportunity here if we don’t with other pairs.
Only AFTER the announcement and the press conference will we know.
Tomorrow, use the same strategy on USD pairs, and we see NZDUSD may give us an opportunity if price goes against the trend.
And if price action on GBPUSD breaks this rising wedge.
US PPI and CPI give the Fed great data, as the next US Interest Rate decision is next week.
And, speaking of GBPUSD and other GBP pairs, we have UK GDP tomorrow, where we have a pessimistic forecast, so let’s keep an eye on this.
Bizarrely, after the number of tankers being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Brent and WTI is falling.
We can only assume that this is due to profit-taking by traders, but keep an eye on the news out of Iran for more ideas on future direction.
And the slight fall in the price of crude has helped the US Indices after the bear run based on the threat of interest rate rises.
But we will watch these as well after tomorrow’s Inflation news.
That’s all for now.
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